UK meteorology

Never mind snowpeople, you may yet have a limping JohnnyO plus Mrs. JohnnyO & a rather charming French Bulldog arriving ! Open up that east wing, I'm not superstitious and the grey lady won't annoy us.

JohnnyO. o/
If you turned up with a dog you'd have two constant shadows varicoloured not grey - or rather the bulldog would.
 
Interesting perspective from an ex-Met Office forecaster-turned Netweather member referencing several posters in the Model discussion thread who search the outputs at this time of year for snow:

Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in the main upper trough in mid Atlantic during tomorrow. Initially on the right hand side of the developing jet stream; the trough becomes diffluent and thus the surface feature deepens quite rapidly as it transfers across the jet to the left exit area. It is a classic wave development into a major storm, even being given its own name under the system brought in a year or two ago. It certainly has the potential to cause disruption with the winds. Snow on higher level routes on its northern flank also along with the gale or sever gale force winds. No major rainfall problems though, I would imagine, other than local surface flooding as the low does travel quite swiftly. Its actual track and depth will be interesting to watch,well it will to me.

Note the discussion of the low developing in the right entry region of the jet, then with the base of the trough becoming diffluent, the developing low exits to the left, as I explained in one of my earlier lessons. Thanks to the strength of the jet in this area, and the strong diffluence which is forecast to develop in the shallow, zonal jet, this bears all the hallmarks of classic winter cyclogenesis and it's therefore not surprising that, as this is due to happen just as the low arrives over the British Isles, the Met Office and Irish Met have named the storm and issued Amber Warnings.
 
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Blowing a gale last night which I didn't see coming, wood piles blown down and a very rickety aerial on the end house made me move the car. One of the lads from up Howarth way had to tie his garden furniture down.
I thought it was Thursday for the high winds?
 
Blowing a gale last night which I didn't see coming, wood piles blown down and a very rickety aerial on the end house made me move the car. One of the lads from up Howarth way had to tie his garden furniture down.
I thought it was Thursday for the high winds?

Pretty breezy here last night as well - I thought I'd mentioned windy for some on Wednesday, but the strength of last night's wind caught me by surprise. I'm now going tocheck the FAX charts for tomorrow, and will update later.
 
Updated Met Office amber warning for tomorrow(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map):
Issued at: 09:54 on Wed 22 Feb 2017

Valid from: 06:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Valid to: 20:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Some very strong winds are expected on Thursday in association with storm Doris with gusts of 60-70 mph likely, and 70-80 mph on coasts and hills. Whilst the strongest winds look to be only short-lived, damage to structures, interruptions to power supplies and widespread disruption to travel networks are likely, with a danger of injury from flying debris. Trees are also likely to be damaged or blown over. Heavy rain is also likely through Thursday as well as some snow over high ground as the system clears eastwards. These may prove additional hazards. The warning has been updated to extend the at-risk area southwards.

There is still some uncertainty about the track of storm Doris, but increasing confidence that there will be widespread disruption across parts of England and Wales.

Covers: East Midlands, East of England, London & South East England, North West England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber
 
Met Office concerned that Doris could undergo Explosive Cyclogenesis AKA 'bombing', wherein the central pressure drops rapidly and winds intensify quickly. What this means is that, on current charts, it doesn't appear to be a particularly well-formed low with a particularly low central pressure, but don't let that make you think it won't come to much!
 
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Quick update - simplified computer-generated diagram of the expected development of "Doris" doesn't show the hallmarks of Sting Jet formation, however, I wouldn't want to discount the possibility. Even if it doesn't occur, it still appears that it's going to get very stormy! BTW, I'm gong to make Sting Jet cyclogenesis according the the Shapiro-Keyser model of cyclogenesis the subject of the next 'lesson', having only really understood it myself today.
 
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