UK meteorology

Just give me a heads up if you see serious winds heading for West Scotland and I'll appreciate it m8. Being near the coast we're vulnerable to gales and localised flooding on occasion.

JohnnyO. o/
Absolutely - I'm still going to post on matters meteorological. It's just that the climate engineering stuff is something I've not paid much attention to, and I'm concerned that it's rather contentious and possibly infringes the 'no politics' policy of TSR.
 
It isn't. It's just that any idle talk about climate has to "tap dance" around the political bomb that is so called "climate change".

This isn't a climate thread, though; it's a weather thread. There is a subtle difference. If you feel uncomfortable regarding this thread, then that's fine - there's no need to follow it. I'm not going to venture into the question of climate change; if the thread ever does devolve into a politically-motivated insult forum on that subject, not only would I back out, but I'd be contacting moderators to shut it down.
 
...If you feel uncomfortable regarding this thread, then that's fine - there's no need to follow it. I'm not going to venture into the question of climate change; if the thread ever does devolve into a politically-motivated insult forum on that subject, not only would I back out, but I'd be contacting moderators to shut it down.

Not in the least uncomfortable as you appear a learned man. I've enjoyed your posts herein.
 
Just thought I'd post a quick update regarding the output of the numerical prediction models. After mild, cloudy conditions tomorrow morning, the High pressure will shift position slightly, thereby cutting-off the maritime, north-westerly flow, and briefly reintroducing cooler, brighter continental air for Saturday night and Sunday. Much of mainland UK will see a ground frost tomorrow night, and Sunday for most will be chilly, bright with plenty of sunshine, and a light south-easterly flow. Sadly, from Monday onwards, more cloud will be caught-up in the circulation, and, as the blocking High 'sinks' south-east into the continent, a mild, cloudy and generally dull tropical maritime flow will establish, with temperatures rising (initially in south-west England), such that, by next Thursday, daytime maxima in the south will be in the 13-15 degree Celcius range; between 8 and 12C further north.

By the end of next week, the models are suggesting that the unsettled weather which will have already developed in the north-west of the UK will be spreading south. This is due to indications that the high will merge with the Azores anticyclone, thereby drifting west and switching our airmass from a returning tropical maritime one to returning polar maritime. Winds by this stage will be westerly, with average temperatures (8-12C generally by day) and periods of rain and showers, possibly with blustery winds, interspersed with drier and brighter periods between frontal systems. Rain amounts are expected to be greatest in the north-west, though there are few indications at this stage of amounts which would cause widespread flooding.

Towards the end of the model run, there are hints that the jet may move to our south, placing us on the colder side of the jet. If this verifies (and it is a BIG "if"), low pressure systems would be likely to pass to our south, possibly pulling colder polar maritime and arctic maritime masses into their circulation. This would probably cause precipitation in the north and on high ground further south to become wintry, though low levels south of the Humber would probably see rain.
 
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