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UK meteorology

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by chrisbell, Saturday November 19, 2016.

  1. Poop!
     
  2. According to the Met Office update I have received Johnny is generously sharing the chance of snow with me!
     
  3. He might even let me have some later on Sunday.:p:eek:
     
    Count of Undolpho likes this.
  4. Just to mention that things are going to rather busy for me over the next few days (family funeral next Tuesday among others) so the frequency of my posts might drop off a bit.
     
  5. JohnnyO

    JohnnyO

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    Johnny is generousenough to not only happily let you both have all my future snow, sleet and hail ... but would even gladly forward todays bitter north east driving wind and constant hard rain.
    Sorry bout the loss Chris, hope things go as well as they can on Tues.

    JohnyO. o/
     
    chrisbell and Blademonkey like this.
  6. Thanks Johnny.
     
  7. I have enough wind at the moment Johnny and you can keep the driving rain. Snow gratefully accepted on the girls behalf as well as my own though.

    My condolences Chris.
     
    Blademonkey likes this.
  8. Thanks Colum. For various reasons I hadn't seen my Aunt for a couple or three years, and it hasn't really hit me yet; no doubt it will next week. She had been seriously ill for many months, sadly, so her passing was a release from pain and suffering, though obviously not so for those left behind.

    Getting back on-topic, the usual member I quote hasn't been posting recently, and, in the model discussions, various members are referencing different timeframes; trying to get a feel for the likely progression is, therefore, not easy at the moment. Our cold front associated with the storm is clearing the far south-east, and, after a wet, windy and gloomy morning here, this afternoon has been brighter with some glimpses of sun. As a result, most of the country is now in a cooler north-westerly flow, with showers (snow over higher ground) in the north and north-west, with a likely "Cheshire Gap Streamer" tonight and tomorrow. This is an interesting setup wherein a cold, unsettles north-westerly sends a stream of showers south-east through the Cheshire Gap to affect the north- and north-west Midlands. Such bands can extend as far as Birmingham or Oxford, and this might happen in this case. Sunday's "slider", as described in what effectively became this week's lesson post the other day (when I pasted a post from Netweather which I had found illuminating on the mechanics of this weather forum-named phenomenon) is still likely, though its expected path (and therefore the areas that can expect to see snow and rain) is as yet uncertain. Beyond that, it seems that much of the country will see a few colder days, with the cold lingering over the northern half of the UK even after milder, unsettled westerlies return to the south. At present, the longer-range situation is also uncertain, with a trend for higher Angular Atmospheric Momemtum out of the tropics to maintain a meridional, meandering jetstream on the one hand, and other outputs suggesting a period of more zonal Atlantic-driven conditions during the second half of the month, possibly including the Christmas period.

    I'm going to quote a knowledgeable Netweather member who specialises in the global teleconnnections and oscillations which underpin the likely evolution over the next month or so. She (like me) has a rather wordy style, and I don't understand all of the theory behind her posts, but I'm going to quote her as I think that frequent readers of this thread will understand enough by now to get a feel of what she's describing (my explanantions in bold):

     
    Count of Undolpho likes this.
  9. Yup bit deep for a quick read, I'll come back to it.
    Snow on the ground this morning and ice on the car.
     
    chrisbell likes this.
  10. JohnnyO

    JohnnyO

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    0c and snow threatening from a clear blue sky with a cutting wind.

    JohnnyO. o/
     
    chrisbell likes this.
  11. I'm not surprised, Colum. Chilly and clear hear as well, though no snow as yet.
     
  12. Hail showers and a bitter cold wind, it's here!!! :) P.
     
    chrisbell and Count of Undolpho like this.
  13. Indeed. I think I'll quote all the warnings that are currently issued by the Met Office.

     
    Blademonkey likes this.
  14. Based on the short-range, high-resolution models, the above warnings seem pretty accurate. I'd add that Monday could be quite wet and windy, with snow possible over higher ground. As I type, it seems probable that milder, zonal Atlantic conditions will move in again, at least for the south after midweek. How long these conditions last, or if they ever become established in Scotland, is open for debate; there are indications that easterly winds may enter the equation from the end of the year and into January 2018, though this is obviously highly conjectural this far out.
     
  15. Another interesting forum post that discusses the possibility of mild zonality versus continued cold:

     

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