Currently we still have the low adjacent to south west Norway so the UK still in a cold north westerly, with an icy start in many places , so wintry showers will continue albeit mainly in the north but tending to be less frequent before dying out. The reason for that is later in the day a wave depression and associated fronts will approach from the north west bringing cloud and rain to the W/NW, perhaps some brief snow in the highlands, which will track south over night and tomorrow, Behind the front the wind will veer heralding the introduction of colder air and the expected new regime.
So by midday Tuesday the low has slipped south east into the Baltic States whilst the high pressure to the west surges north into Iceland thus the UK in a northerly airflow.with wintry showers in the north and down the east coast. Over the next 48 hours the high pressure ridges north east forcing the low south west over Holland and northern Germany which veers the wind north east over the UK which will tend to concentrate the wintry showers along the east coast. The notable feature of the week is that it will be cold with widespread airfrosts in the mornings
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But there is good news on the horizon The colder air gets shunted south and east as the high pressure takes closer order and the energy running around the top slips a front south accompanied by rain and somewhat warmer air during Friday.
Over the weekend the high comes under pressure from energy tracking east to the north west but manages to maintain a ridge into the UK so a dry weekend albeit still the chance of frost in the mornings.
So in summation I think one can safely say a pretty cold week with some wintry precipitation around but probably mostly confined to the higher ground and coastal areas with elsewhere remaining pretty dry and little sign of any sustained cold spell albeit temps liable to remain a tad below average.
All things considered the ecm quite close to the gfs with cold air shunted south next weekend as the ridge comes under pressure from a strong jet running across the south of Greenland and south of Iceland.
Pleased to see Dutton is back to enhance the info you give us
P.Pleased to see Dutton is back to enhance the info you give us
Both Chris and Dutton are great men but I have doubts about their powers to control the weather in wet west Scotland
P.
You flatter me Sir!Both Chris and Dutton are great men but I have doubts about their powers to control the weather in wet west Scotland
Not at all Chris, not at all.
P.
Today any rain still around from yesterdays fronts will quickly clear the south and north east leaving a cold north westerly to northerly airflow over the UK which will be quite strong in the north with frequent wintry showers with snow on the norther hills. This will continue overnight and into tomorrow.but again there will be a northern and western bias with many parts of England remaining dry, albeit cold.
So by Weds 00 we have the not unfamiliar analysis of low pressure centred over the Baltic States and high ridging north into Iceland with the UK, as previously mentioned in a cold northerly with wintry showers in favored spots. Over the next 30 hours this slowly starts to change with the ridge adjusting NE across the Faeroes which veers the surface flow and concentrates snow showers along the east coast down to Norfolk and even a little inland. Needless to say temps not a long way above freezing in many places apart from God's Little Acre.
This onshore flow continues overnight but the ridge is sinking south under pressure from energy running towards Iceland from NE North America, Thus by Saturday midnight the onshore cold flow has been cut off as the UK comes under the influence of the ridge. Still cold with a widespread air frost Saturday morning but over the weekend the ridge continues to come under pressure and is relegated south west as temps rise to around average over the UK as the surface wind becomes more north westerly.
But by Tuesday 00 we are back in familiar territory with renewed amplification and the surface wind once more veering northerly as the colder air to the NW is directed south east initiating a another cold spell But wait, will the energy to the west be strong enough to dissect the ridge? Tune in at 10 for the next installment.
Interesting that the ecm does force some energy every through the ridge next week which results in a front straddling the country splitting the arctic air and the milder air to the south before it clears the south coast leaving the UK in cold northerly airstream. This scenario would be quite interesting except of course it will not pan out like this.
You weren't supposed to notice that!
