The 12z models showing fairly good agreement in the general evolution out to T168hrs.
As posted in the short term thread we see that small but quite active low over Scotland whip down the north sea early next week and showing over the low countries by Tuesday .This bringing quite a cold northerly in it's rear.
GFS chart T120hrs
Some snowfall probably over the far north and can't be ruled out over higher levels towards the east as the winds turn on shore mid-week although most will just see an unpleasant spell of chilly rain.
The general idea is the high starts then to topple and recede south west as the jet goes over the top and cuts back into Europe.This turns the quite cold flow to north east and then east and then the winds drop off as the high settles across the UK again.
Temperatures after recovering a little around this week end fall off again as the polar air moves south early next week and will likely remain just below or around average.
We are pretty close to a really good northerly early next week but the high is wobbling around just too close and again the coldest plunge goes into Europe.
The ongoing trend of further cold air driving south through the Scandi.trough continues to top up the European cold pool. We are starting to see the cut back of the jet under the block which was not apparent a couple of days ago so these are trends to watch to enable the UK to turn properly cold instead of being on the periphery.
Outlook - Unsettled, quite windy at times, and becoming colder as the influence of the high cell wanes
The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 surface chart.
A cloudy and mild start to the day with some patchy rain around central England and Wales at the moment as the cold front continues to drift south during the morning. Further north frequent showers over western Scotland. But more persistent rain will arrive here, and to regions a little further south, by late morning and track east through the afternoon, albeit becoming intermittent, courtesy of the warm front associated with the system tracking rapidly east from southern Greenland, Still mild but becoming quite windy in Scotland.
The rain will then pep up over Scotland through the evening and then further south as the triple point passes close by and the cold front starts tracking south east. Meanwhile the rest of the country stays cloudy, but mild, in the warm sector.
Through Sunday the cold front will continue to track south thus essentially splitting the country with cloudy warmer air south of it and windier with some heavy showers in the north as the wind veers more northerly introducing much cooler air.
Overnight the cold front quickly clears the south coast so Monday a much quieter day, cloudy with perhaps some sunny intervals, but much less wind as wind courtesy of a transient ridge. But by early evening patchy rain will start effecting western regions as a warm front, associated with a another low near the southern tip of Greenland, edges east.
Some light patchy rain/drizzle on Tuesday as the weakening warm front crosses the country but very mild in the warm sector.The one slight complication is the cold front waves a tad so perhaps some more persistent rain over Scotland for a time
On Wednesday the subtropical high amplifies in mid Atlantic which diverts the little complex frontal structure south east over Scotland which will track south during the day bringing patchy rain to most areas with snow on the high ground in Scotland. At the same time introducing cooler air once again as the wind veers.
And the NH profile for T120
Outlook - the colder weather has arrived and will stick around a while
The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight
As can be seen, the colder air has arrived everywhere apart from the far south where the cold front is just clearing.with some rain still around. So a frosty and cold start to the day with some showers along north and eastern regions which could be of snow. These will hang around during the day but the wind will ease as the ridge moves in leaving a sunny and cold day in most places.
The showers will die out during the evening leaving a clear and cold night with a widespread frost by morning. But by 06 cloud and rain from the approaching occlusion will be effecting western regions
The front will edge east through Friday along with the precipitation which will be a mix of rain, sleet and snow, the latter more prevalent on the higher ground but perhaps lower as well in north western regions. Another cold day.
The weakening front will continue to edge east overnight Friday and through saturday so patchy rain around, still likely to be of snow on the high ground, but slightly less cold
But overnight Saturday and through Sunday an occlusion associated with a shallow low around Iceland has tracked south east and this will bring some wintry showers with, particularly in the north west. At the same time an eye must be kept on developments to the west and a major trough has tracked east from Canada and is around the tip of Greenland.
The trough tracks east overnight and by 12 Monday the associated fronts are approaching north west Scotland and by evening a belt of rain will be effecting northern and western regions, likely snow over the higher ground in Scotland, as the front(s) track south east
And the NH profile for T120
Outlook - remaining cold and unsettled
The 500mn and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 surface chart
There is a widespread, quite severe, frost this morning which lead on to a sunny and cold day in eastern regions. But a belt of rain associated with the occlusion is already effecting N. Ireland and south west Wales and England. This will track east during the day with perhaps some snow flurries on the moors in the south west but more likely on the higher ground in Wales and the north west of England
Through this evening and overnight the patchy rain, sleet and snow will spread to all areas except norther Scotland , the snow more likely in the north, so not as cold tomorrow morning as today.
This is pretty much the story for Saturday with norther Scotland remaining cold and dry but the main area of the rain will move east but some heavy showers will spring up behind which could be heavy in the south west
This frontal system will clear over night Saturday but a cold front associated with a low tracking north of Iceland will move south east down the country on Sunday giving some snow on the high ground in Scotland but patchy rain further south as it weakens.
On Monday , after a quiet start to the day, it will become increasingly windy with gales in exposed areas and heavy rain and snow (mainly in the Scotland) will spread south east on a cold front associated with a complex low over Iceland
This situation continues through Monday evening and early Tuesday but from this point the scenario becomes more complex as the the subtropical high pressure amplifies in mid Atlantic and the filling trough is forced down across the UK as the cold front slips into the North Sea. And this is all connected to the trough tracking up the east coast of the US. There are still doubts about how this will precisely pan out.
And the NH profile at T120
Unsettled and eventually temps dropping to around average or a tad below. But in the interim the track and final destination of this weekends low has been, and still is, causing the odd headache.
The NH 500mb and surface urinalysis for midnight and the 9400 UK chart
Any lingering fronts will basically lose their identity today but it will remain cloudy and mild in most areas. The possible exception to this will be the in the W/SW where the cloud should break giving some temps still way above average. But by late afternoon cloud and rain will arrive over Ireland and the south west as an occlusion tracks east
The front and rain belt will continue to track east across the country through this evening and overnight with the rain becoming more fragmented, before finally clearing into the North Sea by dawn. Meanwhile the oft mentioned low is deepening rapidly west of Ireland
So Saturday will start quite sunny and dry but rain and strengthening winds will be quickly into N. Ireland and the north west courtesy of fronts associated with the now very deep low to the WNW of Ireland. The heavy rain will track south and east during the day to be across Wales and the north by evening accompanied by strong winds Temps still way above average, particularly in some regions.
Over Saturday evening the rain will clear and through Sunday the low drifts around to the north west of Scotland, and with some troughs embedded in the flow some strong winds and frequent wintry showers in the north with perhaps some snow on the high ground. Meanwhile waves continue to form on the trailing front to the south west and one will bring more continuous rain to the south through Sunday, Temps still way above average in England and Wales but average elsewhere
Over Monday and Tuesday the low continues to fill and drift over the northern regions of the UK and with the odd trough and front in the mix this is a formula for sunshine and showers, particularly in the western and norther regions where they could well be frequent and squally by Tuesday with thunder and hail in the mix, The south and east having the best of the weather over the two days with temps now around average generally
To continue with the gfs. The low continues to fill and drift into North Sea through the middle;e of the week so sunny interval and showers still but by Thursday the next front arrives from the west as the Atlantic steps up a gear, (this has been covered in previous posts)
Thus a wet day on Thursday but worse is quickly to follow as a low that has formed in the baroclinic breeding ground off the eastern seaboard has tracked rapidly north east across an environment facilitating cyclogenesis to be 966mnb just north of Scotland by 1800 Friday bringing some wet and very windy weather with severe gales in the north
From here over the weekend into the beginning of the following week very unsettled and windy and. given the source of the cold air hinting the Atlantic, some, transient quite wintry conditions cannot be ruled out as systems quickly track E/NE