The future of the UK.

[Ben88]

As a half Scot (mothers side) I hope they see sense and vote to stay in the UK.

I heard a snippet on the radio the other day which stated if Scotland went Independent without the £ they would need between fifty and one hundred billion to support their new currency.

How true/accurate a figure it is I don't know but if its even close that's just scary.

Yep!!! The Governor of the Bank of England stated that a independent Scotland would have to hold much larger reserves if it wished to use the pound without a currency union.
The conservative estimate for this is £21 Billion or £4000 for every Scottish Citizen:s

so really a easy amount to raise for our own currency

I bet it would pan out slightly differently if and when the time comes!

 

[Bechet]

This is one of the most important issues we will ever discuss.

Hardly true, Peter! Important, yes, but only in a local way. Unless you include the re-homing of the British nuclear fleet - which isn't as important as the fact that we have one at all.

I'd rate Ukraine and Middle East situatuions as 'most important' - Scottish independance is a sideshow, in itself.

This morning it feels so ludicrous for Scotland to try going it alone that it won't happen. Enough Scots will, on the day, put their hearts on hold and vote with their heads. Then get their hearts out again when England and Scotland go head to head at Twickenham, mid-March next year. Send your best, send your Flowers of Scotland and sing your hearts out! But stay in UK next week!

 

[Tall_Paul]

I too will be very sad if Scotland decides to split.

Personally I hope they stay, but ream as much powers out of Westminster as they can (which it sounds like they're doing a marvellous job of at the moment).

 

[Bechet]

I too will be very sad if Scotland decides to split.

Personally I hope they stay, but ream as much powers out of Westminster as they can (which it sounds like they're doing a marvellous job of at the moment).

Aye! but only Politicians' election promises. If Westminster promises had any substance, they's have been on paper, debated and voted in long befoore now! All I'm hearing is typically empty rhetoric. Animal Farm stuff, WMD in 45 minutes, bullshit.

I want them to vote 'No' while knowing all these promises are empty - but the promises have been made so Westminster add fuel to the fire in so many Scottish hearts.

 

[ravey]

Re: RE: The future of the UK.

why destroy that on account of some historical notion of oppression.

That may the thinking of some people with no idea about history but I suspect not the mindset of the majority. It's about the future not the past.

---

Regarding currency union, how does tying your economic policy to another country's fiscal policy achieve independence?

How does it not? All the countries with the euro are tied to the German economy and I don't see any claims that they're not independent.

If you don't think this is important, read up on Harold Wilson's pledge that devaluation will not affect the pound in your pocket.

Not sure what the relevance of devaluation is.

Regarding Estonia - in 1991 the world was a different place, American stupidity had not rocked the world's banking system. If you think the same rules apply today, think again.

The world still has foreign exchange markets that work regardless of the strength of the u.s. economy. If their economy is weak someone else's is stronger. Estonia's success was nothing to do with America. (There I thought again for you ).

Don't get me wrong, I have no axe to grind here, but if you think that a nation of 5m can do better on it's own that as part of a nation of nearly 70m, I think you are mistaken.

Which scale of success are you using? One where decisions are made for the majority of the population? I've really got no interest in whether we'd do better (whatever that means) or not, I just want our political mistakes to be made by Scots for Scots..

Norway does alright for a comparable nation but if anyone suggests 15 quid a pint they're getting a sore mouth.

 

[chrisbell]

I haven't commented yet on this (as far as I recall), but I thought I'd say that I wish Scotland well whichever way the vote goes. I certainly want to see the Union survive (and if you'd told me back when I was in my teens that there would be a vote on Scottish Independence just after my 34th birthday I'd have said there was no chance of it happening), but it isn't for us in England to decide.

 

[Fido]

A reason cited by many Scots for independence is to ensure that never again do they get Tory governments imposed on Scotland that they have roundly rejected. The English might argue for their independence to reduce the risk of living under a Labour Government ensured by the number of Labour seats elected by the Scots.

The UK has rarely been governed by any party supported by a clear majority of the people. 40% can produce a landslide for a Party opposed by the other 60%.

Democracy can produce some strange outcomes UK style.

After the vote will be interesting. Either way. Big change beckons.

 

[JohnnyO]

Guess that's just the way democracy works I fear Peter. Never yet over the decades have I been represented at local, Scottish, National or European levels by the individuals or parties for whom I voted.
Still, I do value the struggles which others have gone through to afford me my right & I continue to exercise it, pointless though it has been thus far over the years in my own case.

JohnnyO. :icon_razz:/

 

[Jute Man]

"sold up the river for one man's megalomaniacal vanity project. I used to respect Alex Salmond but when I have seen him in debates he comes across as a blustering bully under the slightest scrutiny (as Nick Robinson from the BBC found out the other day)."

We are not voting for Alex Salmond, we are voting for Independance. Strange our different perceptions. I thought Salmond put Robinson in his place.


"Given the intimidation dished out by the 'Yes' campaign "

What ? I live near Glasgow, work in Edinburgh and know no-one and have not heard of anyone being intimidated.
The BBC and most of the press is biased towards "No", so don't believe everything you hear/read.


"I heartily agree with the point that I am not sure that people are seeing this as anything more than a General Election, which is a worry really."

Do you realise how condescending that sounds ?


"I hope that the people of Scotland realise that, in all likeliness, they're just going to get an Edinburgh version of Westminster. Politicians are politicians, no matter which side of Hadrians wall they reside."

The Scottish Parliament have done a better job for Scotland than Westminster ever have. Politicians may be politicians, but at least they'll be Scottish Mp's voting on Scottish issues, and I will have a direct control via my vote over them.
As it is the 5.3 million of us are totally swamped by the 56 million English. My vote in the UK elections means nothing.


Did you know there are more pandas in Scotland than Westminster tory MP's ? There are 2 pandas ! Tis true, not a joke.


I am not anti-English, I would just like to have a real say in my daughters and my own destiny.

Well said, Doggycam - think too many here rely on the bbc and mainstream media for information. If anyone here would like the facts from the Yes side, can thoroughly recommend Wings over Scotland, The Wee Blue Book - free download, and Newsnet Scotland websites.

Also, there will be no demolition charges set along the border to be detonated and cast us adrift into our bounteous North Sea. We'll still be here. We don't hate the English, intact we don't hate anybody, we just don't like being ruled by the Westminster Rich Boys Club. And this is not about the Scottish people, it's about the people of Scotland. There is a difference. (English Scots for Yes is a very good FB page, for example).

There may be more, but not for now...

 

[mr..bean]

Crikey, I think this is actually a brilliant debate, it's why I love being a member of this esteemed forum and I hope whatever the outcome next week we continue as such.

To be honest, the point around currency union is still not being answered. To say that '...nobody would be able to stop Scotland using sterling' is patently untrue. Sterling is controlled by the Bank of England and their backing would be required to trade in the physical currency. How could the BoE control inflationary pressure without controlling money supply within it's own currency? It's total nonsense to say that BoE permission wouldn't be needed, IoM use the currency because Britain takes care of IoM external and defence affairs, and retains paramount power to legislate for the island. So IoM comparisons are false because IoM is a crown dependency, not an independant nation state as Scotland would be.

Plus WHY would an independant Scotland want this? If this meant a perpetual Tory government in the rest of the UK this would mean that English Tories would be in complete control of Scottish monetary policy FOREVER!! Do the Scots who vote yes realise that hands their wallets to English Tories forever or bankruptcy trying to set up their own currency?! There are no other choices!

Plus when did a currency union without political union EVER work? The last attempt at that was the Euro and look what happened there!

Plus I can see why a currency union would favour Scotland but it certainly wouldn't favour England? The Scottish economy would be massively reliant on North Sea oil so changes in the oil price would affect Scotland hugely, but it wouldn't touch the rest of the UK. However the BoE are setting economic policy based on the UK requirement, not Scotland's. The policy decisions would not be in Scotland's interest whatsoever. Mark Carney has made it quite clear it would not be his decision, it would be the decision of elected politicians in the rest of the UK, a UK that Scotland has just given the finger to!

I have heard the SNP mention that the Edinburgh Agreement compels the UK government to agree to a currency union. Err, no it doesn't, there is nothing in there for the remaining UK to agree to a Eurozone style currency union with an independent Scotland.

I think we can say with certainty that a currency union is not going to happen.

Simple question - and maybe someone will be able to tell me what the answer is - has anyone asked the Independence party to explain what their strategy is in the event of not being able to use sterling

One thing is for sure - you cannot control economic policy if you don't control the purse strings.

In the event etc. nobody would be able to stop Scotland using sterling (anyone can use any currency they choose), Isle of Man use it for example. Of course like IoM we wouldn't accept Scottish notes ironically.

We're each other's biggest import/export market, so using sterling would make that easier but a new currency would possibly make more sense. The ideas thrown around that Scotland somehow wont be able to do anything for themselves is absurd and bordering on insulting if not downright racist. Scottish enlightenment was a major influence and driving force in American independence.

"When Estonia gained independence in August 1991, the government decided to create a new currency to replace the rouble. Less than a year later, in June 1992, deposits held in Estonian banks were redenominated, from roubles to kroons. Special counters at the new central bank were opened to allow residents to swap the old currency for the new one. As a show of confidence in the kroon, residents were also permitted to switch roubles for German marks, a strong currency. The scheme, reviewed in a 2002 IMF paper, worked well: the switch to a new central bank and currency took a week.

An independent Scotland should be able to follow this example. It will have more time to plan: fully 18 months between the vote and independence, which would come in May 2016. Scottish notes already circulate, and production could easily be scaled up. The new country's share of Britain's foreign-exchange reserves—around £9 billion—would provide credibility."

Full article here.
When I worked at a certain Scottish bank we had to change our domestic only systems to from sinlge currency to also allow euros to allow for banking services in Ireland and that cost millions, but most systems already cater for foreign currency and it's just a case of adding a few new settings to a parameter file or table.

 

[ravey]

To be honest, the point around currency union is still not being answered. To say that '...nobody would be able to stop Scotland using sterling' is patently untrue.

It's not patently untrue, it's a fact. Perhaps you're confusing a currency union, which would need an agreement, and using sterling, which is a fully convertible currency* (I was wrong earlier when I said any currency) which any country in the world can use if it chooses to do so. Panama and El Salvador use the US dollar which is also fully convertible.

Good articles here and here.

Here's something interesting (full article here):

“UK politicians are playing a dangerous game on currency. It is a shared asset, and a currency union is the best option for an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK, as set out by the independent Fiscal Commission.

As the Scottish Government's White paper makes clear, a currency union will make it easier for people and companies to go about their business across the two countries.

An overwhelming majority of people north and south of the border agree that keeping the pound makes sense – with a recent poll showing 71% of people in the rest of the UK want to share the pound with an independent Scotland, and the Social Attitudes Survey showing that 79% of people in Scotland back it.”

* A currency that can be readily bought or sold without government restrictions, in order to purchase another currency. A convertible currency is a liquid instrument when compared to currencies tightly controlled by a central bank or other regulating authority.

p.s. this discussion unsettles me as I'm not convinced any of this is going to be relevant.

 

[Fido]

Some quotes from one of my favourite books.

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Little_Prince

An undecided voter who thinks a lot may find inspiration here.

 

[Bechet]

A reason cited by many Scots for independence is to ensure that never again do they get Tory governments imposed on Scotland that they have roundly rejected. The English might argue for their independence to reduce the risk of living under a Labour Government ensured by the number of Labour seats elected by the Scots.

And neither of those arguements exist if we all see ourselves as British first and foremeost. But I am English first and British as a consequence. And I don't give a shit who won and who lost at Bannockburn, we've moved on - and fought side by side through too many wars more recently.

 

[Fido]

All I need now is some wind.



Words are the source of all misunderstandings.

 

[Bechet]

So you are the guy with the flag pole! (seen as I drive to my niece's home)(I think)

 

[Burgundy]

I'm all for self-determination but, without intending to condescend, Salmond's proposals - especially regarding the currency - hardly point to Scotland as an autonomous nation-state.