The end of the week with the ecm merely confirming that the percentage play remains A NW/SE split with temps creeping above average, particularly in the south.
Hospital appointments and taxes!Unfortunately, I can't - I have a hospital appointment this afternoon.
The wind is very deceptive, it feels cooler but all the UV is still getting through. Sun block or a hat, the hat has more style!
Yup, first thing i did when i got home was put hat in my van. That means its going to rain tomorrow.The wind is very deceptive, it feels cooler but all the UV is still getting through. Sun block or a hat, the hat has more style!
Today will be the last generally wet, cool and windy day for a while. The front and rain belt are currently running down the spine of the country as they move slowly east, clearing East Anglia and the south east by late afternoon. Sunshine and showers in the wake of the front, initially in N. Ireland and Scotland but spreading elsewhere as the day progresses. Temps no great shakes.
The showers will die out later leaving a mainly clear night with ground frost likely in places.
The overall NH pattern approaching the weekend (500mb geopotential height and anomaly chart).
Thus by Thursday with the Azores high pressure ridging north east and low pressure to the north west a NW/SE split is initiated with a fresh WSW wind and patchy rain affecting the former whilst the south and east are drier and with temps beginning to rise.
Not much change from this scenario overnight and into Friday with patchy rain in the north west and England and Wales remaining dry and warm but just to note that in mid Atlantic there is an active front with waves forming on it
Over Saturday the aforementioned front edges slightly closer thus the patchy rain/drizzle may push slightly further south but the bulk of England and Wales will remain dry, sunny, and warm
Overnight Saturday and through Sunday yet another wave forms on the front and nips north east so a continuation ofa fresh SW wind and patchy rain in the north west whilst further south, with no wind, temps are progressing well above average. But changes are afoot and as the front eventually clears high pressure again starts ridging north east and by 00 Monday is generally established over all of the UK but not to forget that there is still a fair amount of energy exiting north east North America.
The ecm evolution not a million miles from the gfs with the active front mid Atlantic at T72 which slides north east as the high pressure starts to ridge north east again by T96 and by T120 a high cell has formed and tracked east into the North Sea. So initially a brisk south westerly over the NW with patchy rain drizzle before clearing on Sunday whilst elsewhere dry, light winds and quite sunny
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Today
A dry sunny start to the holiday weekend for most areas but with fronts lingering to the west so more cloud is possible with patchy rain in the northwest. Mist and low cloud quite likely in western and coastal areas as well so temps depressed somewhat.
Overnight a similar scenario with patchy rain persisting in western Scotland and mist and low cloud around western coasts with clear skies elsewhere.
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Sunday
The wave that can be seen away to the south west on the 00 fax chart tracks north east to be just west of the Hebrides at midday so again patchy rain and cooler conditions for the north west of Scotland whilst elsewhere plenty of warm sunshine apart from some coastal areas where mist and fog may well persist
Monday
Still a very slack gradient over most of the UK under the influence of the ridge so another sunny and very warm day for most areas, particularly the south east (I take no responsibility for model temps which are I suspect under cooked by two or three degrees in places) the exception once again being Scotland where a front is lingering. But changes are afoot with an upper low ejected from the Canada/Greenland trough complex into the Atlantic with the associated surface low in mid Atlantic on it's travels east.
Overnight and through Tuesday the low tracks quite sharply NE/N courtesy of the block to the east but the associated fronts do partly traverse the UK bringing patchy rain and cooler conditions to the west with the east and southeast remaining very warm and sunny. But the aforementioned trough factory is in full production now and another intense upper low is on it's way east and this has spawned an nasty surface low of 965mb by 00 Wednesday. This is of course according to the gfs.
On Wednesday this low also curves north east, albeit slightly further east than the previous one, but the associated fronts also partly cross the country bringing rain, sometimes heavy along with strengthening winds, and cooler conditions to the west and inland as they progress east. This could well initiate some thundery activity in the east.
The ecm is broadly similar to the gfs
Today will be not dissimilar to yesterday with most areas having plenty of sunshine in light winds but temps will be a couple of degrees warmer. The exceptions again being north west Scotland which continues to experience patchy rain from adjacent frontal activity and western coastal areas where sea fog is again liable to be persistent. Yesterday the max at Camborne and Valley were 12C and 11.8C respectively
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Tomorrow again not a dissimilar scenario but temps warmer again, in the 27-28C range in the south east and possibly the sea fog either much thinner and not so widespread.
But as discussed in previous posts the complex upper trough and associated surface depressions are stating to dominate the Atlantic and by 00 Tuesday the first low is curving NE/N to the west of the UK courtesy of the block to the east but the associated fronts do traverse the country through Tuesday bringing some wet and windy weather to the west and north west with the south east staying relatively dry and still quite warm. Whilst this low tracks north of Iceland the next deep low has arrived west of Ireland
This low follows a similar track to the previous one and also curves north east but the front crosses the country on Wednesday bringing more showery rain and generally cooler conditions.
Following on from the previous post the ecm has another low quickly following the first two which deepens rapidly to 956mb and is liable to bring very wet and windy conditions to the north and west towards the end of the week. The anomaly chart illustrates very well the influence of the deep and large upper trough and the block to the north east.
Overnight clear skies for most but the fog may well return along western coasts but by 0600 rain from the front(s) associated with the low to west is already impacting N. Ireland and the Western Isles
Through the day this rain band will move slowly east bringing showers and cooler conditions in it's wake whilst the east/south east remains warm still, However there is the probability of thundery activity breaking out in these areas later in the day.
Wednesday generally a cooler and cloudy day as the front lingers but by 1200 front(s) associated with next Atlantic depression, that is curving north south of Iceland, are already bringing rain and freshening winds to N. Ireland and western areas of the UK, This light patchy rain will move slowly east during the day although not encroaching as far as the far east where it will remain quite warm
The front has decayed by Thursday leaving a brief interlude with some weak transient ridging with scattered showers and generally a cooler day.
By 1200 Friday quite an intense upper low is situated south of Iceland and the cold front associated with the surface low is orientated western Scotland/Ireland The patchy rain associated with this will struggle east through Friday but again the east and south east tending to remain dry although some thundery outbreaks may occur later in the day. The battle against the block to the east is on going
The ecm has the end of the week low starting to form at the base of the upper trough away to the WSW at T72 and deepens it rapidly over the next 24 hours as it tracks north east and then north before slowly filling. As previously mentioned the associated front will struggle east Friday/Saturday
It was very nice while it lasted... ..along with the sunshine we've got to have a little rain sometime....
P .
Hot here, though - we've just been working in the garden, and it was warm work.It was very nice while it lasted... ..along with the sunshine we've got to have a little rain sometime....
Yes been hot and sunny all day but it looks like thing's are about to change. P
