UK meteorology

Update from last night's model ouput post: much the same as I mentioned last night, however, next weekend the more likely outcome seems to be that, rather than the jet dropping to our south, the high will ridge back north over us. This would probably lead to a return of bright/sunny, settled weather with cold forming at the surface and overnight frosts.
 
Yes indeed, it is great to hear for a while at least the temps will be up here in the south west but the blustery winds forecast are not so welcome but the weather is like that, good and not so good!
The weather is of great interest to me down here, sometimes fine sometimes wild and windy but always intresting . Thank you.
 
Shave to the grave said:
They beat watching it on the telly...:D
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You flatter me, Sir!;)

Sunday update shows short to mid-term much as it was yesterday, but with the potential for other possibilities post mid-month. At present, a reversion to high pressure over or near the UK, bringing chillier, brighter conditions with overnight frost seems the most likely, however, some outputs (mean averages in particular) seem determined to prolong the forthcoming Atlantic-driven pattern of series of cyclonic depressions over the UK, brining with them periods of wet and possibly windy weather interspersed with brighter, showery conditions past mid-month and towards Christmas, with temperatures around or above average - 8-12 degrees in the south, 5-9 in the north. One or two knowlegeable posters on Netweather have a concern regarding some of the global teleconnections (long-term patterns) suggesting a switch towards a stronger La Nina (opposite of El Nino) and resulting drop in Angular Atmospheric Momentum (this is the very difficult concept I'm trying currently to understand from some very technical and wordy online research papers!:confused:). If this happened, it may mean that a rather similar winter to the last few for the UK is set in stone, at least until mid-January, which will not be welcomed by those who have suffered flooding or wind damage this past three winters.o_O That level of pessimism (or optimism if you hate cold and snow and are therefore perverse:p) is reflective of the worst (or best:eek:) possible case; much more likely is something more seasonal before the end of the year, though I'd suggest that the likelihood of a white Christmas is pretty low at present.
 
chrisbell said:
You flatter me, Sir!;)

Sunday update shows short to mid-term much as it was yesterday, but with the potential for other possibilities post mid-month. At present, a reversion to high pressure over or near the UK, bringing chillier, brighter conditions with overnight frost seems the most likely, however, some outputs (mean averages in particular) seem determined to prolong the forthcoming Atlantic-driven pattern of series of cyclonic depressions over the UK, brining with them periods of wet and possibly windy weather interspersed with brighter, showery conditions past mid-month and towards Christmas, with temperatures around or above average - 8-12 degrees in the south, 5-9 in the north. One or two knowlegeable posters on Netweather have a concern regarding some of the global teleconnections (long-term patterns) suggesting a switch towards a stronger La Nina (opposite of El Nino) and resulting drop in Angular Atmospheric Momentum (this is the very difficult concept I'm trying currently to understand from some very technical and wordy online research papers!:confused:). If this happened, it may mean that a rather similar winter to the last few for the UK is set in stone, at least until mid-January, which will not be welcomed by those who have suffered flooding or wind damage this past three winters.o_O That level of pessimism (or optimism if you hate cold and snow and are therefore perverse:p) is reflective of the worst (or best:eek:) possible case; much more likely is something more seasonal before the end of the year, though I'd suggest that the likelihood of a white Christmas is pretty low at present.
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I always look forward to the updates, I'm interested in the weather anyway but especially so during the winter months when things start to liven up. Summer's for wimps...:D
 
Burgundy said:
@chrisbell - The weather was stunning yesterday. Bright sunshine from the church service onwards and, other than the temperature being 6°C outside, it could have been August!
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Good to hear, and congratulations on your happy day! I was intending to message you when I saw that you were on the forum. It was evidently brighter and colder for you in the far south than I thought - here, only as far north as South Norfolk, it was cloudy and milder.
 
As always, if anyone is confused by what I've typed, please PM me and I'll re-write or clarify as needed.

EDIT: Are these sort of posts still of interest? Do please let me know if you'd rather I stopped them and just concentrated on discussing what the models are suggesting. Bear in mind, though, that I eventually want to cover understanding model outputs so that those who are interested can follow them and make their own forecasts - it would be good for me to remind myself as I'm doing so!
 
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chrisbell said:
As always, if anyone is confused by what I've typed, please PM me and I'll re-write or clarify as needed.

EDIT: Are these sort of posts still of interest? Do please let me know if you'd rather I stopped them and just concentrated on discussing what the models are suggesting. Bear in mind, though, that I eventually want to cover understanding model outputs so that those who are interested can follow them and make their own forecasts - it would be good for me to remind myself as I'm doing so!
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I have to say Chris, this one got me. Read it several times & my head's still spinning...:confused:.
But keep them coming, especially the forecasts...:)
 
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