UK meteorology

chrisbell said:
Model update - any sign of the high pressure moving to sit to our north-west has diminished. Rest of the month likely to be unsettled, with, as usual, the brunt of the wind and rain being for the north and west, though the south and east will also see wet and breezy weather at times. Really, the only uncertainty at present for later in the month and the Christmas period is the exact location of the nuisance European high - if it drops south and west back to the Azores from whence it came, the flow will be fom the west. This would put most of the country into unsettled weather with temperatures around average. If it stays over south-west Europe, as it is at present, the south and east will be mainly dry, cloudy and exceptionally mild (14-16C), while areas further north west will be wetter, windier, and around average temperatures (low double figures Celcius). Anyone who was considering a flutter on a White Christmas would be well advised to hang onto their money.
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Very rare to see snow in Cornwall anyway, but when we do it's normally bad! I can live with mild and wet!
 
Model update:

confused-doctor1.jpg
 
With regard to a shorter-term forecast (with a few concepts I've outlined in this thread as revision!), I can do no better than to link here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7837;sess=

My next meteorology lesson should be tomorrow - the subjects will be airflow within and between areas of high and low pressure, and the mechanism of frontogenesis.
 
I'm still running behind so can't comment on yesterday's but whilst needing some re-reading and thought I can safely say I understand more about our weather and it's causes than I ever have before. Edumacation is a wonderful thing even as an old dog.
 
Count of Undolpho said:
I'm still running behind so can't comment on yesterday's but whilst needing some re-reading and thought I can safely say I understand more about our weather and it's causes than I ever have before. Edumacation is a wonderful thing even as an old dog.
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Thanks Count - I'll pause the series for a few days to give everyone time to catch up and re-read.
 
JohnnyO said:
Bear with me Chris, I'm guessing if it develops my home area on the west coast of Scotland, high ground, will likely be in the firing line.

JohnnyO. o/
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Could be, Johnny. Strong winds from the westerly quadrant and heavy rain could be problematic. Some models show this as an isolated deep Atlantic storm on Christmas Eve, but others suggest that there's going to be other shortwave lows circulating through the longwave trough - one either side of this main low (one on the 23rd, one on Christmas Day itself). It may not happen, and, certainly, as yet, details are unclear in terms of duration, exact path, windspeed (both mean and gust) and precipitation levels. Cold air from the north-west may well be drawn into the circulation, so the Highlands may well see snow, with sleet and wet snow to moderate levels in Scotland. I'll update the thread with information as it becomes clear.
 
Latest models in the last hour show every option from no storm at all (though a fair bit of unsettled weather from mid-next week through until the 27th), through a storm for the south and the Midlands, to a storm hitting the Northern Isles and Faroes.
 
Model update - Christmas Eve storm now may either miss the UK, or maybe weaker than first thought. It may even be delayed until Christmas Day itself. I'll post updates as the period comes into the reliable range within the computer models.
 
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