UK meteorology

Update to the update - storm seems likely to affect entire UK during the first half of Christmas Day, but will probably affect Scotland, N. Ireland and N. England dispro9portionately. Path and strength as yet uncertain, but it could be pretty bad for the aforementioned areas (wind gusts 70-90 mph possible).
 
I don't know whether anyone is reading these model updates related to the potential Christmas storm - in order to save myself from typing updates to no-one, please like or reply to this post - if I have no response, I'm going to stop them. Anyway, storm may track slightly further north, with the centre between Scotland and Iceland. This would see the western Highlands and parts of N. Ireland experiencing the worst.
 
chrisbell said:
I don't know whether anyone is reading these model updates related to the potential Christmas storm - in order to save myself from typing updates to no-one, please like or reply to this post - if I have no response, I'm going to stop them. Anyway, storm may track slightly further north, with the centre between Scotland and Iceland. This would see the western Highlands and parts of N. Ireland experiencing the worst.
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Keep them coming Chris, I smashed my arm up at work last week so not hitting the keyboard too much. Can't even shave...:rolleyes:
 
chrisbell said:
I don't know whether anyone is reading these model updates related to the potential Christmas storm - in order to save myself from typing updates to no-one, please like or reply to this post - if I have no response, I'm going to stop them. Anyway, storm may track slightly further north, with the centre between Scotland and Iceland. This would see the western Highlands and parts of N. Ireland experiencing the worst.
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Your posts are of intrest Chris, I can't pretend to understand everything you say but would not want you to dumb it down just for me. Please keep them coming, If you want to of course.
 
JohnnyO said:
Indeedly BM, for you may yet have uninvited, shaving related, elderly guests arriving if the west coast of Scotland gets hit !

JohnnyO. o/
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I shall be keeping an eye one the weather and I hope it's not too bad for you and if I wasn't living in a tiny little cottage you would be more than welcome to over winter here in balmy Cornwall :)
 
Models over the Christmas period are arguing with respect to a possible storm from the Atlantic from midnight Christmas Eve through until mid-afternoon on Christmas Day, some 15-16 hours later. The main American model (GFS) shows a powerful storm affecting the northern half of the UK with wind gusts in western Scotland, N. Ireland and IoM of between 70 and 90 mph, with 1.5-2 inches of rain. This is preceded by a cold, blustery day on Christmas Eve with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (the latter mainly above around 200-300 metres elevation). However, the main European model (ECM) shows a windy, unsettled Christmas Eve but a much less active Christmas Day; blustery in the north, but not stormy, and quite mild (though probably quite gloomy) further south. More updates (hopefully) tomorrow - I've pulled something in my neck and will probably pop round my local surgery after the main appointments are over to see if one of the GPs will check it for me - after my leg fractures this year, I'm rather paranoid.:eek:
 
Battern down the hatches just in case , it could be wild and
chrisbell said:
Late evening GFS model for Christmas Day is awful - widespread wind gusts to 60-70 mph, 90-100 mph in the north-west.
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we have had quite a wild year across the UK this year and it looks like nothing's going to change soon, going to be blowy!
 
Monday morning update:

GFS still goes for a monster Christmas Day storm over the northern half of the UK, with the centre of the low passsing just to the north of the Scottish mainland. ECM prefers a less nasty but still possibly damaging storm on Christmas Eve, with Christmas Day blustery and showery, with snow on high ground and at lower levels in western Scotland. This is supported by one of the lesser models. Meanwhile, the publicly-available Met Office model (UKMO) has a less intense Christmas Day storm than GFS, but thinks it will cross the centre of the UK, bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to a greater percentasge of the population.
 
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